CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2021-09-28T07:00:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2021-09-28T07:00ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/17845/-1
CME Note: CME source was an eruption from AR2871 around 2021-09-28T05:36Z. This eruption was associated with a C1.6 flare that started at 2021-09-28T05:54Z and peaked at 2021-09-28T06:34Z. From Lan Jian: there is a nice ICME on Oct 1-2. The flux rope part starts at about 12:44 on Oct 1 and sends at about 12:44 on Oct 2. I dont see any associated shock. If we need to set a start time for the sheath region, I would set at about 14:15 on Sept 30.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-09-30T14:15Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 4.0
Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-10-01T05:18Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
************************************************************************************** % Compiled module: EAM ************************************************************************************** Most pr. speed = 649.0 km/sec The EAM version you are running is: v3 Utilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021] u_r = 398.007 Acceleration: 1.48442 Duration in seconds: 253100.45 Duration in days: 2.9294034 t2 is negative ************************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: 1.48 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 773.7 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 01/10/2021 Time: 05:18 UT **************************************************************************************Lead Time: 50.25 hour(s)
Difference: -15.05 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL) on 2021-09-28T12:00Z
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